Odds are high for the Royals

(This was written after game 4 of the 2015 World Series between the Royals and Mets.)

Well, the Royals just need to win one more game. They have three chances to do it.  How likely is that to happen?  I say 92%.

As a manufacturing engineer, I am asked to calculate how likely it is that a machine will meet the requirements that have been defined for it. So figuring out some baseball odds shouldn’t be that hard.  A lot depends on assumptions, but I’ll explain them.  See if you agree.

After yesterday’s game, the odds were 70%. You can see how I came up with that at yesterday’s explanation. I started with an explanation after game 2.  You can also read it here.

Why is it 92%? We started with 70 scenarios of win-loss combos. Well there are now only 4 left. Royals win in 5, in 6, in 7, or the Mets win in 7.

I won’t go into the logic of my assumption- you can read in one of the previous explanations, but I’m assuming that the home team has a 65% chance of winning each game. I made a little chart to illustrate the situation.

Remaining options and odds

So, the odds of the four remaining scenarios right now:

Royals in 5 games = 35%

Royals in 6 games = 42.25%

Royals in 7 games = 14.8%

Mets in 7 games = 8%

If the Mets win any more games, their odds would go up and the Royals will go down. But, even if we get to game 7- at that point the Royals would still have a 65% chance, down from their current 92%.

So I really like the Royals chances to win it all.