Well, the Royals just need to win one more game. They have three chances to do it. How likely is that to happen? I say 92%.
As a manufacturing engineer, I am asked to calculate how likely it is that a machine will meet the requirements that have been defined for it. So figuring out some baseball odds shouldn’t be that hard. A lot depends on assumptions, but I’ll explain them. See if you agree.
Why is it 92%? We started with 70 scenarios of win-loss combos. Well there are now only 4 left. Royals win in 5, in 6, in 7, or the Mets win in 7.
I won’t go into the logic of my assumption- you can read in one of the previous explanations, but I’m assuming that the home team has a 65% chance of winning each game. I made a little chart to illustrate the situation.
So, the odds of the four remaining scenarios right now:
Royals in 5 games = 35%
Royals in 6 games = 42.25%
Royals in 7 games = 14.8%
Mets in 7 games = 8%
If the Mets win any more games, their odds would go up and the Royals will go down. But, even if we get to game 7- at that point the Royals would still have a 65% chance, down from their current 92%.
So I really like the Royals chances to win it all.