Odds are high for the Royals

Well, the Royals just need to win one more game. They have three chances to do it.  How likely is that to happen?  I say 92%.

As a manufacturing engineer, I am asked to calculate how likely it is that a machine will meet the requirements that have been defined for it. So figuring out some baseball odds shouldn’t be that hard.  A lot depends on assumptions, but I’ll explain them.  See if you agree.

After yesterday’s game, the odds were 70%. You can see how I came up with that at yesterday’s explanation. I started with an explanation after game 2.  You can also read it here.

Why is it 92%? We started with 70 scenarios of win-loss combos. Well there are now only 4 left. Royals win in 5, in 6, in 7, or the Mets win in 7.

I won’t go into the logic of my assumption- you can read in one of the previous explanations, but I’m assuming that the home team has a 65% chance of winning each game. I made a little chart to illustrate the situation.

Remaining options and odds

Remaining options and odds

So, the odds of the four remaining scenarios right now:

Royals in 5 games = 35%

Royals in 6 games = 42.25%

Royals in 7 games = 14.8%

Mets in 7 games = 8%

If the Mets win any more games, their odds would go up and the Royals will go down. But, even if we get to game 7- at that point the Royals would still have a 65% chance, down from their current 92%.

So I really like the Royals chances to win it all.

One Response to Odds are high for the Royals

  1. Eric Allen says:

    Thanks for all the positive feedback via facebook!

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